Buried deep in the crosstabs of last week’s PPP poll of the Hagan-Dole seate race, there is this little gem:
One thing the Democracy Corps poll asked was who people would support for Congress in each district of the state. The sample sizes on these are pretty small (51-86 respondents per CD) so should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt but they still tell an interesting story:
– Folks who have leads over 15 points include G.K. Butterfield, Bob Etheridge, Walter Jones, David Price, Howard Coble, Mike McIntyre, Sue Myrick, and Heath Shuler. Shuler has a remarkable 66-27 advantage. It’s amazing how quickly a district can become ‘safe,’ but that’s sort of the choice the Republicans made by nominating Carl Mumpower. Unless I’m missing something it doesn’t look like the 12th and 13th district crosstabs are on the report but I am pretty comfortable saying that Mel Watt and Brad Miller will be reelected this fall.
–The closest Congressional district in the state is the 5th, where Virginia Foxx leads Roy Carter 48-46. I really hope the DCCC and other folks take the pick up opportunity in this district seriously. There are races on the Red to Blue list that based on the data I’ve seen are less winnable than this one. Carter is a uniquely appealing candidate and has the opportunity to pull off the same kind of shocker Larry Kissell almost did in 2006 if he gets the resources he needs to run the strongest campaign possible.
– In the 8th District they show Robin Hayes up 50-42 on Larry Kissell- I think it’s a little closer than that right now but that’s simply a sample size issue. Same thing in the 10th District where Daniel Johnson trails Patrick McHenry 54-39 based on 65 interviews.
Admittedly, the sample sizes are small since these are just subsets of the statewide polls. But if NC-5 is 48-46, what a golden opportunity we have there.
The Blue Majority page has a Floridian and a Texan, but if you think guys named Garcia or Noriega adequately reporesent the South, ha. Roy Carter in NC-05 looks like he would be an excellent addition to this effort. Coach Carter’s web page says he favors “bringing our troops home from this ill-advised war in Iraq.” That seems pretty progressive for a candidate running against winger Virginia Foxx, and worthy of our support.
BTW James L and DavidNYC, that Blue Majority page badly needs some clean-up and up-dating.
The listing starts off with the unfortunate choice of Leslie Byrnes. Uh, that primary is three months gone by and so is Ms. Byrnes. Can you please remove failed candidates from the field? At the least, move her entry and photo to the bottom if you want to help her retire campaign debt or something.
Once you get that Act Blue page cleaned up and maybe freshened up with a couple of new candidates — preferably from regions and genders (more women please!!!) not well represented — you could try to flog your readers to make donations, now before it is too late to make a difference in races like NC-05.